Football Wagers
NFL revised drug and banned substances penalties
2010-10-21
Player conduct is one of the most important things that the NFL is concerned about. Following this, no mercy is given a player is deemed to be behaving contrary to the set of regulation. Apart from maintaining league discipline in the national football league, the drug rules are part of the most welcome amongst the players although criticism cannot be hidden. Drug rules were conceived when many players were suspected to be playing under influence and apart from just being indiscipline and ineffective players, their health was being weakened and this could translate to very bad criticism and fall of reputation to the league as a whole.
The national football league introduced drug rules long ago but was revised in the year 2007 with more tough requirements and penalties this time round. One of the repercussions was that players would dig deeper into their pockets for their misconducts in relation to the drug policy. Performance enhancement drugs and especially steroids were quite inevitable among many players. In the same year, the NFL made it clear that EPO, a blood boosting substance to their list of banned substances. this was after intensive discussions and negotions between the officials of the players union and those of the league.
Among the agreed penalties of misconducct and use of banned substances among plyers included suspension to players who would be evidenced as using the drugs. Apart from this, players should be forfeited off their bonuses by an a determined percentage and even more tough, such players in their first time of testing positive cannot be paid during the time they are away on suspensions. Formerly, the salaries would be cut down but the bnusess maintauined yet in most instances, players get bonuses that are mopre fat than their salaries.
The NFL commissioner on behalf of the league Roger Goodell while announcing these changes in the drug and banned substances policy had expressed concern that its programs were being affected because of the wide usage of drugs among players. And this was not only the end because this regulation can be amended in future either to toughen it further or make it more use-friendly.
To make the players more responsible, this policy was implemented with tougher actions such that the testing of drug users would be done weekly and that any ten team players would selected randomly for the samples and EPO test as taken more seriously. Previously only seven members would be selected for the test and a total of about 10000 would undergo the test in the league which means that from 2007, this of players tested in each season is about 12000. In the United States by then, there was no other league that would carry EPO test at that close interval.
NFL: PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS (8:20 PM ET, NBC)
2010-01-09
Philadelphia makes a return trip to Dallas after Sunday’s ugly 24-0 loss which cost the division title and a would-be bye this weekend. Instead, the Cowboys will play as NFC East Champs, getting the advantage of playing at home where they are 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS so far in ’09. They will also play as the favorite of 4-points, and getting the support of 56% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.
With back-to-back shutouts, Dallas finished as the NFC’s best defense in terms of points allowed at 15.6 PPG. Of course, they also gained a lofty 7.8 yards per pass attempt, so it would seem Dallas is ready to break a 13-year playoff-win drought. The Eagles have been a NFC playoff fixture this decade and reached the conference championship game as the #6 seed last January. They are 10-7 SU & 11-6 ATS in the postseason under Andy Reid, including 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the wildcard round.
It wasn’t long ago—approximately a year—that Tony Romo’s biggest nightmare was the Philadelphia Eagles. After leading Dallas to a sweep of the season series, perhaps the tables have been turned completely around. The Cowboys swept the regular-season series for the first time since 2005, and Romo continued his stellar play down the stretch, throwing for 311 yards and two touchdowns. Over his last six games, Romo has thrown for 1,859 yards and 11 scores with just two interceptions.
The tandem of Marion Barber and Felix Jones combined for 182 yards and a score on 29 carries in Week 17 and each ripped off runs of more than 30 yards. Romo comfortably completed 24 passes with throws of at least 25 yards to three different receivers, snapping the Eagles six-game winning streak.
What’s troublesome for Philadelphia is the fact that the offense, which averaged a healthy 31.2 points during the winning streak, went completely into the tank and scored just 16 points in two games against the Cowboys. Only one other team held the scoring unit below 22 points—Oakland. McNabb, meanwhile, turned in one of the best seasons of his career despite missing two games due to broken ribs and couldn’t solve the Dallas defense. In two games, he was sacked seven times and threw one touchdown and a pair of interceptions, completing just 36 of his 66 throws. If there’s one player in particular the Eagles need to be aware of that isn’t named DeMarcus Ware, it might be Jay Ratliff. The fifth-year nose tackle has recorded 16 tackles, with three sacks and two fumble recoveries, in the last four meetings.
History is on Philadelphia’s side when it comes to the postseason and production. Since 2000, Philadelphia has advanced to the playoffs seven times and won each of its seven opening games. The Cowboys haven’t enjoyed a postseason victory since 1996 when it knocked off Minnesota in the wild-card round. Jerry Jones’ franchise has lost its last six playoff games and failed to score more than 20 points in any of them.
PREDICTION Romo has now overcome two of his biggest demons—Philadelphia and regular-season games in December and January. Now, he gets a shot to clear another hurdle by winning his first playoff game after losses in 2007 (Carolina) and ‘08 (Giants). The way Barber and Jones performed in Week 17, coupled with the defense’s sparkling stretch run, points to another milestone victory for Romo. DALLAS 21, PHILADELPHIA 17
NFL: Looking Ahead in the Rearview Mirror - Playoffs
2009-01-13
While this year’s NFL postseason tournament more resembles a NCAA basketball tournament bracket, with the vast number of upsets and top seeds going down in a heap, a few reliable formulas are still working as we head towards the Conference championships and the Super Bowl.
The Basics
Thus far home teams are taking on the chin, despite the raucous crowd support these teams enjoy. Homers are 3-5 SU and against the spread, having been placed in the role of favorites a rare five times in eight games. (Fewest in eight years) As favorites, these home teams are 2-3 ATS. Though weather was more a factor for the division games, the Under has been a solid 6-2 to this point, tying the most in three years, when we also had a sixth seed (Pittsburgh) in the conference finals. In the last five years of the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Under is 25-15. For what it’s worth, the Over is 6-2 the last four years in conference championships, more coming this week?
Turnovers
There are two tried principles every sports bettor’s wish they had the Magic 8-ball for to determine the outcome of playoff games. Every year we hear about how turnovers will determine the outcome of games and this year is no different. The eight winners are a +16 this far, with only San Diego’s win over Indianapolis being the surprise of sorts having a -2 turnover margin. Teams with that edge are 6-1 ATS with one game having the same amount of turnovers.
Turnovers, especially fumbles, are considered random events by most sports handicappers; however they are magnified in the playoffs, with emotions at such a fevered pitch. Turnovers seemingly create such an extreme response when it comes to the players, being sky high when they go in a teams favor and an almost ashen-look on the faces of the players of the team that turned it over. The unpredictable nature of a Chad Pennington throwing seven interceptions all year and following that up with four picks in loss to Baltimore is mind-boggling. Or Tennessee out-gaining the Ravens 391-211 in total yards, having the ball for over 34 minutes, yet committing three turnovers, two as fumbles (eight during the regular season) costing them a chance at victory. Determine the winner of turnover battle, that’s your winner.
Quarterbacks
The NFL is known as quarterback league and though any defense will influence how a signal caller will play over four quarters, their impact on any given game is immense. In the wild card games, Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb out-performed their counterparts in leading their teams to victory. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco didn’t outplay either of his two opponents per se; however he made a few key plays in each game and didn’t make the big mistake. Carolina’s Jake Delhomme was crestfallen with his performance against Arizona and he should have been in throwing five interceptions.
Besides Delhomme’s meltdown, the game that signified the importance of quarterback play was Philadelphia and the Giants. Eli Manning was having a terrible time throwing the ball into the wind, tossing several knuckle-baller Tim Wakefield would have been proud of. Manning’s troubles weren’t just against the wind, as he overthrew open receivers or missed the target by a foot or more on slant routes that demand precision. Remember, Manning until last year’s late season run was known for poor mechanics. McNabb had no such issues, throwing tight spirals all day, with his only problems being on short touch passes into the wind that demanded loft, not velocity, throwing the pigskin off course. Both defenses played great games, but in the end, McNabb ability to make plays and Manning’s equal inability to not so was the difference. Expect this to influence this week’s conference championships as well.
Running the Ball
Being able to run the ball, not necessarily for a ton of yards, but to have attempts that keep a defense honest, is another important factor in winning playoff games. While detractors will point to the passing game that sets up victory in many cases to allow teams to run the ball late in games, the recent success of Philadelphia and Arizona, two teams known for throwing the ball, have found greater success with offensive balance. The team with the most rushing attempts is 6-2 SU and ATS in this year’s playoffs. The average difference in carries for the winning team is 32.6 to 23.7 per game.
Stopping the Run
Here’s a thought-provoking question, how many times have you heard a coach or player say, we have to stop the run of the opposing team? The answer is most of the time and there is good reason for it. Being run on is defensively demoralizing. When a team is passing the ball, certain elements have to come together, the receiver has to get open and run the correct route. The quarterback has to have protection and deliver the ball on time and accurately. If any of those things don’t happen, a pass can be incomplete. The running game is simpler, it’s about blocking and tackling and the runner hitting the hole. Certainly their can be similar breakdowns that destroy plays, yet stopping the opponent from running makes them one dimensional and easier to defend. As fellow StatFox cohort Steve found, teams that allow the fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season has always been a solid wager and this season is incredible 7-1 ATS. (See Platinum Sheet for other unique info) This week that favors the teams from the Keystone State, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
NFL: NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (8:15 PM ET, NBC)
2008-11-10
The NFL Week 10 Sunday Night feature pits NFC East rivals New York & Philadelphia. No disrespect to the Redskins, but according to the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings, the Giants and Eagles are the top teams in the division, and with two head-to-head meetings coming in the next five weeks, the East title could hinge on what happens in those two games. Philly is a 3-point home favorite, but over 70% of early bettors were backing New York.
This first of the two matchups is in Philly, beneficial for the Eagles since they are trailing the Giants in the standings by two-games. HC Andy Reid’s team has won three of four games at home this year, allowing just 11.5 PPG. The defending champs are 2-1 SU & ATS on the road in ’08, and 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS in their L14. With Philly a 3-point favorite, note that the underdog in this series has covered the L6.
Good things have happened in threes for the Giants at Lincoln Financial Field recently. New York has won three straight road games in the series, including two by a field goal. Few could have imagined the words third-place preceding the Eagles name in 2008, but such is the state of the NFC East. A win over the Giants, however, could slide them back into contention.
Having a healthy Brian Westbrook back in the lineup certainly puts Philadelphia fans in a better frame of mind and definitely gives the Giants' defense something to think about. In the last four meetings, Westbrook has averaged 134.5 total yards per game, and his pass-catching ability creates the biggest headaches. Applying pressure from the outside works great against teams lacking a short or intermediate passing game. The Eagles, however, have both, and regularly feature Westbrook on short swing passes or screen passes to nullify the ends advance.
Containing the Giants pass rush has been a major issue for Philadelphia.
Donovan McNabb was sacked 15 times in last year's two meetings, including a dozen in a 2007 Week 4 defeat. The Eagles, though, have shored up most of the issues on the line, and it shows in McNabb's performance. He's been sacked just three times in the last four games and not surprisingly, the team is 3-1 after a 26-7 win at Seattle.
McNabb's counterpart, Eli Manning, rarely has a dirty jersey at the final gun himself, because defenses can't get to him. Sacked just nine times, he's completing a career-high 61.2 percent of his passes thanks to the extra time and has curtailed his turnovers as well (five interceptions). He turned in another efficient performance in a 35-14 win over Dallas, throwing three touchdowns.
Blitzing the quarterback has long been a staple of the Jim Johnson-led defense with the Eagles, but unlike past units, there is no dominant rusher.
Instead, the production has been spread out among the ranks, with Darren Howard leading the way (6.5 sacks) The X-factor for the Eagles will be wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis, who has returned to the lineup with nine grabs in the last two games. Jackson is the clear-cut No. 1, and the presence of Curtis can only help the passing attack as a whole.
PREDICTION: The Eagles' offense has taken off over the last three games, averaging 31.0 points, and presents a mighty challenge for New York. McNabb can more than match the Giants on the scoreboard. PHILADELPHIA 27, N.Y. GIANTS 21
NFL: Cincinnati at Green Bay (8:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-08-11
After an offseason’s worth of news surrounding the Brett Favre/Green Bay Packers saga, the next chapters of the story will finally unfold on the field, starting tonight in Green Bay, where the Packers host Cincinnati on ESPN’s preseason Monday night football. Aaron Rodgers gets his first start for the hosts, who’ll play as a 3-point favorite.
Undoubtedly, most of the Monday broadcast will focus on Rodgers. His play, the reception he gets, and how he handles himself in his new role as starter for Green Bay will be critiqued to the point of overload. Let us not forget however, that there is an entire game, a whole other team, and a pointspread and total for us enthusiasts to concern ourselves with.
When looking at this game from a betting perspective, the first thing that jumps out at you has to be the fact that the Packers are being given at least the full 3-points of home field advantage by oddsmakers. Whether or not this is warranted figures to be the question of the day, as the Packers are a club that have been inundated with distraction throughout the entire offseason and first two weeks of training camp. While the organization and players have insisted the Favre-saga has been put behind them, their actions on the field in a sloppy scrimmage last Saturday night would certainly suggest otherwise.
Green Bay has not hosted a game at Lambeau Field since the NFL Championship loss to the Giants, but was able to re-establish some of the home field advantage last year that became so powerful in the Mike Holgren-era. Head coach Mike McCarthy’s Green Bay teams have actually become known for their road prowess, generating back-to-back seasons of 6-2 ATS away from home in his two seasons. That type of overall success has been limited to the regular season, as Green Bay has struggled in the preseason under McCarthy, going just 3-5 ATS (2-2 at home). The scenario that has been most challenging has been against AFC foes, as the Pack is just 1-5 ATS over the last two seasons in that scenario.
The questions won’t stop at Rodgers tonight for Green Bay, as both of his backups are rookies. Brian Brohm of Louisville is the assumed second-string replacement and he will be filled by Matt Flynn of LSU, the starter for last year’s national champion team. Both have endured struggles in their transition to the NFL since the April draft.
Where questions abound in Green Bay, optimism reigns in Cincinnati. The Bengals are anxious to put the 2007 season, and their troubled past to rest as they head into 2008. Several players who received their share of negative off-the-field attention are gone, and the team has turned to a more character-strong roster. Of course, there might not be any bigger characters than WR Chad Johnson in the entire league. If you missed his strange offseason, don’t worry, as you really missed nothing but theatrics. His threats of holding out for a trade went idle and he remains a Bengal for the coming season. Still, after battling injury during the start of training camp, he figures to be on the sideline Monday.
Cincinnati has struggled on the road in the preseason in the five years under Marvin Lewis. His teams are just 2-6 SU & 4-4 ATS in that scenario. They have been a reliable OVER team as road underdogs though, having surpassed the total in eight of their last nine road preseason games. The average score in those contests have been Cincinnati 19.9, Opponent 25.8. With a renewed focus on the defensive side of the football, Lewis’ group figures to improve on that horrid PPG allowed average tonight.
Additionally, where the total is concerned, Monday’s game fits into a strong StatFox Super Situation focusing on the UNDER 36:
Play Under - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CINCINNATI) - in the first two weeks of the pre-season. (44-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (71%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*)
This will be the second time in three preseasons that the Packers and Bengals have met, and Green bay will be looking for an entirely different outcome than the last time. In that 2006 contest in Cincinnati, the Bengals thrashed the Packers, 48-17, after taking a 34-7 lead into the halftime locker room.
StatFox Pick: Cincinnati +3 & UNDER 36
NFL - Seattle @ Philadelphia
2007-11-30
Philadelphia nearly pulled off the impossible on Sunday, winning at New England. Instead, following that heartbreaking 3-point setback, the Eagles now have to face another red-hot team in Seattle. The Seahawks have won three straight games, SU & ATS, and four of five to again seize control of the NFC West Division. For Philly, this game continues a difficult 6-game season ending stretch vs. clubs sharing at least the same won-lost mark. It will be looking for a different result than the last time Seattle visited the City of Brotherly Love, a 42-0 shellacking at home, easily the worst loss in the 9-year Andy Reid era. The Eagles though are on a 22-10 ATS run vs. teams from the NFC West, while Seattle has struggled vs. the NFC East, going 2-8 ATS in its L10.
The Seahawks could be on the verge of joining the fight for the NFC and have certainly taken a step forward in the NFC West, hitting 7-4 SU and 6-4-1 ATS thus far. The arm of QB Matt Hasselbeck is matched only by his mind, an intelligent leader capable of making the most of any given situation. Meanwhile the defense has enjoyed steady production from a backfield allowing just 218 passing yards per game, resulting in an impressive 16 point-surrendered-per-game average, among the best in the league.
The fans in Philadelphia have watched their team trot along the line of mediocrity all season long, but the injury concerns for QB Donovan McNabb present intrigue to a volatile situation as fans divide. Those who recognize RB Brian Westbrook as the source of hope may be ready to lay witness to rookie QB Kevin Kolb’s rise to the starting ranks while others simply want to win now and feel McNabb is the only option to do so. Either way, improving on 5-5 SU and ATS (not including Sunday night) is the desire.
Keys to the Game
This is a tell-tale contest for both clubs who host division rivals next week. Seattle has placed the ball in Matt Hasselbeck’s hands. The former Boston College star loves winging all over the gridiron and the results have been positive. Philadelphia comes in 22-10 ATS against NFC West division opponents and is very much in wild card picture. The Eagles are dependent on Westbrook to deliver another solid performance and could be catching the Seahawks at the right time since they are 0-5-1 ATS over the last five years in division sandwich games.
Trends
~ Seattle is 2-8 ATS versus the NFC East.
~ Philadelphia is 22-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards per game in the second half of the season.
FootballWagers.info has the information football fans need to increase long-term profits when wagering on NFL and NCAA games.
With the latest odds, news and notes from around the football world, everything you need to win your wagers is right here at FootballWagers.info.