NFL - Denver at Indianapolis (4:15 PM ET – CBS)

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2007-09-28

Cracks in the foundation of Denver’s 2-0 start were exposed by the Jaguars last weekend and will be again put to the test by the defending Super Bowl Champions. Indianapolis is nearly a double-digit favorite, looking to extend a NFL best winning streak at home.

Jacksonville worked the Broncos’ defense over for 38+ minutes, and didn’t allow QB Jay Cutler and the offense develop any rhythm. Things won’t get any easier against the Colts, who have dominated the head-to-head action between these teams. Discounting the 2004 season finale game in Denver in which Indy rested its starters, the Colts have gone 5-1 SU & ATS in the other six games, pouring in 32.2 PPG in the process. Peyton Manning’s team is on that pace this year, scoring 31.0 PPG. Amazingly, they’ve lost two in a row ATS though, both on the road. At the RCA Dome, Indianapolis has won 12 straight games and is on a run of 8-4 ATS in that span. For Denver, this game starts a five game stretch that includes three vs. 3-0 opponents, plus San Diego, and at Detroit.

Indianapolis is showing its mettle as Super Bowl champions early in the 2007 campaign, delivering and taking opponents best shots. Tony Dungy has been able to keep the Colts on an even keel and not let his team fall prey to the sycophants fawning praise of his team. As Peyton Manning and the rest of the offense receive accolades for delivering continued stellar efforts, one area not really getting its proper due is the coaching staff. In the opening weeks of the season, Dungy and the rest of the staff have been brilliant. The calculated game plan against New Orleans was a thing of beauty, having dissected all the weakness of the Saints. By being aggressive in play calling on offense, the Colts took advantage of Saints and the defense brought extreme pressure to force Drew Bress to hurry more than he cared to. Playing at Tennessee is never an easy task with Jeff Fisher as coach. The Colts moved the ball between the 20’s with relative ease, but bogged down in the red zone and missed scoring chances for both touchdowns and field goals. As the game tightened, the defensive coaches made sure to limit running lanes for Vince Young and were as responsible as anyone for the victory.

Denver is moving the ball with great skill and just not yet seeing the results convert on the scoreboard. The Broncos Jay Cutler is on a “work as you go program”, which means bumps in the road are bound to occur; happening when in earshot of opponents goal-line. This is a conundrum Mike Shanahan can tolerate as long as Denver keeps winning, since he sees the elements for putting up Elway-like numbers are not in the too distant future. What makes Shanahan pleased is even as Cutler makes miscues, at crunch time he doing all the right things to put Denver in spot to win the game. Travis Henry has shown his value and has brought back the Terrell Davis aspect to Broncos running game. Champ Bailey is playing like the All-Pro he is, meaning Dre’ Bly is seeing more action than accustomed to and has bit hard a few times and been burned. The acquisition of tight end Daniel Graham has Shanahan effervescent with praise. Graham a native of Colorado, who went to college in Boulder, who decided he wanted more involvement in the passing game and returned home. As cog in the Patriots wheel, Graham wanted to go someplace where he could shine. Already the best blocking tight end in the game, he has quickly earned the respect of his coach based on play against Oakland. He gave us 60 minutes of unbelievable football," Shanahan said about Graham. "That was one of the best tight end demonstrations I've seen in a long time."

Keys to the Game –Denver inched closer to beating the Colts last season, losing 34-31 at home as three point home favorites. The Broncos have now lost five in a row to Indy, including two blowouts in the playoffs, failing to cover the spread even a single time. The Colts run defense is dramatically better from last season, and you can be certain Shanahan will want to find out how much better they are. Fantasy football players might want to think about Graham and Dallas Clark this week, since both should be important to team’s ultimate ability to win this AFC encounter.

Key Trends
The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in last seven one game road trips.
The Broncos are 2-12 ATS the week before playing division rival San Diego.
The Colts are 7-1 ATS after playing Houston.
The Colts are 11-3 ATS off division road game.