NFL: SAN DIEGO at PITTSBURGH (8:20 PM ET, NBC)

Click here to read latest NFL news

2009-10-02

Pittsburgh has surrendered late leads in back-to-back games to drop to 1-2. Though it’s too early to call this game vs. San Diego a must-win, the Steelers are facing a sense of urgency, already 2-games back in the AFC North. Oddsmakers are banking on the Steelers coming back strong in this game, installing them as 6-1/2 point favorites. Bettors at Sportsbook.com are saying “Not so fast”, while backing the Chargers at a near 80% rate.

What better place for a key game than Heinz Field, where HC Mike Tomlin’s team has won seven straight games while going 5-2 ATS? They’ve also won five straight at home vs. San Diego, while going 4-1 ATS. The Chargers are 2-1, chasing Denver in the AFC West. They will be off next week, an important fact since home teams are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the L6 San Diego pre-bye week contests. Pittsburgh opened as a 5-1/2 point favorite, but San Diego head coach Norv Turner owns a 17-5 ATS record as a road dog of 3.5-7 points.

The Chargers return to the scene of two of their losses last season, including a 35-24 defeat to the Super Bowl champion Steelers in an AFC divisional round playoff game that saw Pittsburgh’s defense allow 15 yards on the ground.LaDainian Tomlinson missed the playoff game at Heinz Field and won’t be 100 percent if he plays in the reunion due to an ankle injury that forced him to sit out two games, including last week’s 23-13 win over Miami. There was a chance during the offseason the Chargers wouldn’t bring back the face of their franchise, but they were able to restructure his three-year contract, which like the original runs through 2011. The deal gave the team salary-cap relief as well as backfield punch with Darren Sproles, who is on the verge of taking the lead role with 271 total yards and two touchdowns.

Time is clearly running out for Tomlinson to play in a Super Bowl—something his counterpart this week, Willie Parker, has experienced twice despite not being drafted. Tomlinson holds NFL records for 10-touchdown seasons to begin a career as well as rushing touchdowns in a single year, while Parker holds the mark for longest touchdown run in a Super Bowl. Parker, off to a horrible start with 66 yards on 27 carries and no scores through two games, woke up last week with 93 yards on the ground and a touchdown catch in a 23-20 upset loss in Cincinnati. Parker was instrumental in both Pittsburgh wins over the Chargers last season. He was dynamic in the playoff game with 146 yards and two touchdowns—one in each half—after gaining 115 yards in an 11-10 regular-season victory last Nov. 16.

The Steelers overcame a 308-yard, three-touchdown performance from Philip Rivers to send San Diego packing for good Jan. 11, and their defense is going to have its hands full slowing down that air attack once again. So far this season, opposing quarterbacks (Kerry Collins, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer) have thrown for 663 yards and four touchdowns with one interception against Dick LeBeau’s unit.

Vincent Jackson has developed into the Chargers’ most-targeted receiver. His receptions have gone up each of the past three years, from 27 to 41 to 59, and he’s already hauled in 16 in three games.

PREDICTION
Each of these teams brought back their meat and potatoes from a year ago and came into the season favored to win division titles. Both have a little catching up to do, yet it seems as though the Chargers have more question marks than the Steelers.
PITTSBURGH 21, SAN DIEGO 18